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It’s Official! Gurus Can’t Accurately Predict Markets

Here is one more article confirming that timing the market and predicting what it will do are efforts in futility.  I would love your comments.



What do you do when the industry’s most popular investment gurus show less market-timing accuracy than flipping a coin? You start flipping coins, or better yet, stop trying to time markets.

CXO Advisory Group has been collecting data from market forecasters since 1998. The firm has tracked and graded thousands of market forecasts made by dozens of popular gurus over the years. The overall results are not good. CXO has concluded that the market experts accurately predicted market direction only 48 percent of the time.

Although gurus tended to come and go during their collection period, CXO found forecasting ability tends to stay about the same. Figure 1 illustrates the cumulative accuracy grade since data collection began in 1998.

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