3 financial predictions for 2013
I agree with the following predictions made by Allan Roth of Moneywatch.
While I pride myself in knowing that I don’t know the future, I also love to look at probabilities. To that end, let’s take a look at my three predictions for 2013, along with my assessment of the probabilities they will be correct.
Stocks will rise — 70 percent probability. According to my analysis of Wilshire 5000 total return data, since 1970 U.S. stocks have had up years 76 percent of the time (that counts 2012 as an up year, which obviously isn’t over yet. Inflation ran higher during most of that time period, so I’ll make a rough adjustment for 2013, with inflation forecast to be low, and will slightly lower the probabilities. Stocks have been up an average of 10.2 percent annually over this period of time. The best year was 1975, when stocks surged 38.5 percent, and the worst was 2008, when stocks plunged 37.3 percent.
read the complete article here: 3 financial predictions for 2013 – CBS News.